August CPI-W lands: the 2027 COLA count moves to 3.3%
Two of the three months that decide the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment are now on the board. August CPI-W printed at 328.481, up from July’s 327.104, which lifts the running two-month count to 3.3% for Social Security and CSRS and 2.3% for FERS. One release left, and it is the one that makes it official.
1. Where the count stands
The 2027 COLA is the increase in the average CPI-W for July, August, and September 2026 over the same three months of 2025. The 2025 baseline is 317.265. July printed 327.104. August printed 328.481. The two-month average is 327.793, which is 3.32% above the baseline — 3.3% after rounding.
August rose 0.42% over July, a normal late-summer move. Note that the running figure went up from 3.1% after July alone — each month that comes in above the running average pulls the number higher.
2. What September would have to do
| September CPI-W | Q3 average | 2027 COLA | FERS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat at 328.481 | 328.022 | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| −0.3% (soft) | 327.694 | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| +0.3% (normal) | 328.351 | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| +0.8% (hot) | 328.899 | 3.7% | 2.7% |
The realistic band is 3.3% to 3.5%. It would take an extreme September print to leave that range in either direction, and every scenario on the table beats the 2.8% paid for 2026.
3. What FERS actually receives
Above 3% inflation, FERS annuitants receive the announced figure minus a full percentage point. Between 2% and 3% they receive a flat 2.0%. CSRS, CSRS Offset, and Social Security receive the whole thing. On a 3.3% announcement, that is $99 a year of difference for every $10,000 of annuity — every year, compounding.
And regular FERS retirees under 62 receive no COLA at all; disability and survivor annuitants are the exceptions. The first adjustment arrives in the January payment after the 62nd birthday, prorated. The mechanics are in FERS & CSRS COLAs explained, and the running numbers are maintained on the 2027 COLA tracker.
4. The Part B bite
Whatever the announcement, the net increase in your check is smaller. The Medicare Trustees project the 2027 standard Part B premium at about $218.60, up $15.70 from $202.90. On the average Social Security benefit of $2,071, a 3.3% COLA is about $68 a month before Part B and $52 after. On a $1,500 FERS annuity at the 2.3% reduced rate, the COLA is $34.50 and the Part B increase takes nearly half of it.
CMS publishes the final Part B figure in November. Retirees paying an IRMAA surcharge absorb the full increase with no hold-harmless protection.
5. FAQ
What is the 2027 COLA estimate after the August CPI report?
With two of the three counting months published, the running figure is 3.3 percent for Social Security and CSRS and 2.3 percent for FERS. That is the number if September comes in flat. A normal seasonal rise in September would push it to roughly 3.4 percent, and a soft month would pull it toward 3.2 percent. The final figure is announced October 14.
Why is the running figure lower than the 12-month inflation rate?
Because the COLA compares two three-month averages, not one month against the same month a year earlier. The July-to-July change was 3.4 percent, but the baseline is the average of July, August, and September 2025, which already includes late-summer price increases. That makes the running COLA figure lower than the headline inflation rate most of the time.
When is the 2027 COLA final?
October 14, 2026, when BLS releases the September CPI and the Social Security Administration announces the adjustment the same morning, along with the 2027 taxable wage base and earnings-test limits.