The MSPB backlog hit 20,335 appeals. What it means if you’re near retirement.

1. What 20,335 appeals actually means

The Merit Systems Protection Board adjudicates appeals from federal employees facing serious adverse actions — removals, demotions, long suspensions, furloughs of more than 30 days, and reductions in force. In a normal year, the Board receives around 5,000 to 6,000 initial appeals.

In FY 2025, it received 20,335. That’s not a one-time spike. It’s an entire structural shift in workload driven by two specific categories that ran in unprecedented volume through federal agencies in 2025:

• Probationary terminations. Agencies separated large numbers of employees during their initial probationary period — typically the first one or two years of federal service, or after a new appointment. The MSPB’s jurisdiction over these cases is narrow, but the appeal volume was enormous.
• Reduction-in-force (RIF) appeals. Workforce restructuring across multiple agencies generated RIF actions, and many of those employees ended up on the Board’s appeal docket.

This is the workforce churn of 2025 catching up to the appeals system. The cases now sit in a pipeline that was already strained: between 2017 and 2022, the MSPB lacked a quorum at the full Board level and accumulated a 3,800-case backlog at that level. That earlier backlog was largely resolved by late 2024. The current surge is starting from a system that just cleaned up the last one.

2. The appeal-or-retire calculation has changed

For a federal employee facing an adverse action, the traditional decision tree was: appeal if you have a strong case and want your job back, retire if you have the years and prefer the certainty. The 91% Federal Circuit affirmance rate for MSPB decisions has always pushed near-retirement employees toward the retirement path when the case is anything but airtight. The new backlog adds a time dimension.

Three scenarios where the math has shifted:

Scenario A: You’re at or near full FERS eligibility. If you can retire under MRA+30, age 60+20, or age 62+5, the pension and FEHB roll forward regardless of whether you appeal. You can file the retirement application, have the annuity begin within 30 days, and pursue the appeal afterward in most circumstances. The retirement preserves your income floor while the appeal proceeds — even if the case takes two years to resolve. The math overwhelmingly favors starting retirement first.

Scenario B: You’re under MRA+10 with reduced pension and no FEHB protection problem. The MRA+10 immediate-retirement option carries the 5% per year penalty for each year under 62 but preserves FEHB if you have the 5-year coverage. For an employee at 57 with 15 years facing an adverse action, the appeal might restore the job, but the wait could easily exceed the difference between MRA+10 reduced pension and full pension at 62. Retiring under MRA+10 now and dropping the appeal often nets better than waiting.

Scenario C: You’re not yet retirement-eligible. The hardest case. Appeal failure means losing the job without the FEHB-carry option, with no pension to bridge to. Appeal success restores the job, but only after the wait. Here, the math depends on the specific case strength, the alternative income options (spouse’s employer coverage, private-sector job prospects), and whether the deferred retirement path is acceptable as a fallback.

The general principle: if you can retire, the wait is cheaper. The annuity, the FEHB, and the TSP are all preserved. The appeal can continue afterward in most adverse-action cases without forfeiting the retirement. The only situation where waiting actively helps is one where the appeal is likely to succeed and the lost wages during the wait are critical.

For federal employees who can retire on an immediate annuity, the new MSPB backlog rarely changes the right move — it sharpens it. Retire first, preserve the pension and FEHB, then let the appeal run its course. The 12-to-24-month wait is borne by retirement income, not by going without pay.

3. The probationary trap

One category in the FY 2025 surge deserves specific attention: probationary terminations. These are federal employees in their first one or two years — either entirely new to federal service or in a new probationary period after a position change. MSPB’s jurisdiction over probationary terminations is extremely narrow.

Probationary employees can appeal to MSPB only in three specific circumstances:

1. The termination was based on partisan political reasons
2. The termination was based on marital status
3. The termination was based on pre-employment conduct rather than on-the-job performance

Performance-based or conduct-based probationary terminations are not appealable to MSPB. The narrow grounds mean a significant portion of the 20,335 FY 2025 appeals from this category face jurisdictional dismissal — not a decision on the merits, but a determination that MSPB doesn’t have jurisdiction to hear the case.

For near-retirement federal employees, this is mostly relevant if you’re a reemployed annuitant on a new probationary period, or if you took a new appointment late in your career that put you back into probationary status. The jurisdictional barriers apply equally regardless of total federal service history — the probationary period attaches to the appointment, not the person.

If you’re in this category and considering an appeal, the question worth asking before filing isn’t “will I win,” it’s “does MSPB have jurisdiction to even hear this”. The answer is no in the large majority of probationary cases. A retirement-eligible employee in this situation should usually skip the appeal and start the retirement application immediately.

4. What to actually do

If you’re facing an adverse action and either retirement-eligible or close to it, the practical sequence:

Inventory your retirement eligibility first, before responding to the action. Run the four FERS retirement doors against your current age and service. Verify FEHB enrollment for the 5-year rule. Confirm any military buyback status, sick leave balance, and SCD. Most federal employees facing adverse actions discover retirement options they didn’t know they had.

Use the reply window before the appeal window. Adverse action procedures under 5 U.S.C. § 7513 give you a reply period before the deciding official issues a final decision. This is where outcomes change most often — not at MSPB. A well-prepared reply can result in the proposed action being reduced or withdrawn. The MSPB appeal is what happens after the reply fails.

Calculate the wait cost. Use your annual pension estimate and FEHB coverage to model what 12, 18, or 24 months of retirement income would look like compared to going without pay during an appeal. For most federal employees with 20+ years of service, the retirement income comfortably exceeds the value of fighting for a back-pay-and-reinstatement remedy that may take years to materialize.

Get specific legal advice on the “voluntariness” question. If you do retire and want to keep the appeal alive, the voluntariness of your retirement is the central legal issue. Retiring in response to a coercive agency action can be treated differently from retiring as a free choice. The timing of the application, the language in agency communications, and your stated reasons all matter. This is not the place for a do-it-yourself approach.

If the case is strong and you’re not retirement-eligible, file fast. The 30-day appeal window from the effective date of the adverse action is strict. Late filings are routinely dismissed regardless of merit. The backlog at the Board level is a wait, not a barrier to filing.